Iindleko eziphezulu ze-10 zokuthumela ngenqanawa zomoya ezichaphazela iimeko kunye nohlalutyo lweendleko ngo-2025
Kwimeko yeshishini lehlabathi,uloyiko lomoyaukuhambisa ngenqanawa kuye kwaba lukhetho olubalulekileyo lothutho kwiinkampani ezininzi kunye nabantu ngabanye ngenxa yokusebenza kwayo okuphezulu kunye nesantya. Nangona kunjalo, ukubunjwa kweendleko zothutho lomoya kunzima kwaye kuchatshazelwa zizinto ezininzi.
Iindleko zokuthumela ngenqanawa zomoya ziphembelela iimeko
Okokuqala, iubunzimayempahla yenye yezinto eziphambili ekumiseleni iindleko zothutho ngomoya. Ngesiqhelo, iinkampani zothutho ngomoya zibala iindleko zothutho ngokusekelwe kwixabiso leyunithi ngekhilogram. Ubunzima bempahla, kokukhona ixabiso liphezulu.
Uluhlu lwamaxabiso ngokuqhelekileyo yi-45 kg, 100 kg, 300 kg, 500 kg, 1000 kg nangaphezulu (jonga iinkcukacha kwiimveliso). Nangona kunjalo, kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba kwiimpahla ezinomthamo omkhulu kunye nobunzima obuncinci, iinqwelomoya zinokubiza ngokobunzima bevolumu.
Iumgamayokuthumela ngenqanawa ikwayinto ebalulekileyo echaphazela iindleko zothutho lomoya. Xa sithetha ngokubanzi, okukhona umgama wothutho umde, kokukhona zinyuka iindleko zolungiselelo. Umzekelo, iindleko zokuthutha iimpahla zomoya ezivela eChina ukuyaIYurophuiya kuba phezulu kakhulu kunaleyo yokuthutha iimpahla zomoya ukusuka eChina ukuyaUMzantsi-mpuma Asia. Ukongeza, ezahlukeneyoizikhululo zeenqwelo moya ezisukayo kunye nezikhululo zeenqwelo moyaiya kuba nefuthe kwiindleko.
Iuhlobo lwempahlaiya kuchaphazela neendleko zothutho ngomoya. Impahla ekhethekileyo, njengempahla eyingozi, ukutya okutsha, izinto ezixabisekileyo, kunye neempahla ezineemfuno zamaqondo obushushu, zihlala zineendleko eziphezulu zothutho kunempahla eqhelekileyo kuba zifuna imilinganiselo ekhethekileyo yokuphatha nokukhusela.
(Umzekelo: iimpahla ezilawulwa ngamaqondo obushushu, ikhonkco elibandayo lamayeza lifuna izixhobo ezikhethekileyo, kwaye iindleko ziya kunyuka nge-30% -50%.)
Ukongeza, iiimfuno zokuhambelana nexeshayokuthumela ngenqanawa nayo iya kubonakala kwiindleko. Ukuba ufuna ukukhawulezisa uthutho kwaye uhambise iimpahla kwindawo ekuyiwa kuyo ngexesha elifutshane, ixabiso lenqwelomoya elithe ngqo liya kuba phezulu kunexabiso lothutho; I-airline iya kubonelela ngokusingatha phambili kunye neenkonzo zokuthumela ngokukhawuleza oku, kodwa iindleko ziya kunyuka ngokufanelekileyo.
Iinqwelomoya ezahlukeneyokananjalo banemigangatho yokutshaja eyahlukileyo. Ezinye iinqwelo-moya ezinkulu zamazwe ngamazwe zinokuba neenzuzo kumgangatho wenkonzo kunye nogutyulo lwendlela, kodwa iindleko zazo zisenokuba phezulu; ngelixa ezinye iinqwelomoya ezincinci okanye zengingqi zinokubonelela ngamaxabiso akhuphisanayo.
Ukongeza kwimiba yeendleko ezithe ngqo ezingentla, ezinyeiindleko ezingathanga ngqokufuneka kuthathelwe ingqalelo. Umzekelo, iindleko zokupakishwa kwempahla. Ukuze kuqinisekiswe ukhuseleko lwempahla ngexesha lokuthutha umoya, izinto zokupakisha ezinamandla ezihlangabezana nemigangatho yokuthutha umoya kufuneka zisetyenziswe, eziza kubangela iindleko ezithile. Ukongezelela, iindleko zepetroli, iindleko zokukhutshwa kwempahla, iindleko ze-inshorensi, njl.
Eminye imiba:
Ubonelelo lwemarike kunye nemfuno
Utshintsho lwemfuno: Ngexesha leminyhadala yokuthenga i-e-commerce kunye namaxesha emveliso ephezulu, imfuno yokuthumela imithwalo iyanda kakhulu. Ukuba ukunikezelwa komthamo wokuthumela akukwazi ukuhambelana ngexesha, amaxabiso okuthutha umoya aya kunyuka. Ngokomzekelo, ngexesha lemithendeleko yokuthenga efana ne "Krisimesi" kunye ne "Black Friday", umthamo we-e-commerce cargo uye waqhuma, kwaye imfuno yomthamo wempahla yomoya yomelele, eqhuba amaxabiso omthwalo.
(Imeko eqhelekileyo yobonelelo kunye nokungalingani kwemfuno yingxaki yoLwandle oluBomvu ngo-2024: iinqanawa zemithwalo ezidlula i-Cape of Good Hope ziye zawandisa umjikelo wokuthuthwa kwenqanawa, kwaye ezinye iimpahla zijike zaba kuthutho lomoya, zinyusa izinga lomthwalo wendlela ye-Asia-Yurophu ngama-30%.)
Ukutshintshwa kokunikezelwa kwamandla: Isisu senqwelomoya yabakhweli ngumthombo obalulekileyo womthamo wempahla yomoya, kwaye ukunyuka okanye ukuncipha kweenqwelomoya zabakhweli kuya kuchaphazela ngokuthe ngqo umthamo wempahla yesisu. Xa imfuno yabakhweli iyancipha, umthamo wesisu senqwelomoya yabakhweli uyancipha, kwaye imfuno yomthwalo ihlala ingatshintshi okanye inyuka, amaxabiso okuthutha ngomoya anokunyuka. Ukongeza, inani leenqwelo-moya ezithwala iimpahla ezityalwe kunye nokupheliswa kweenqwelomoya zempahla endala kuya kuchaphazela amandla othutho lomoya, kwaye ngaloo ndlela kuchaphazele amaxabiso.
Iindleko zokuthumela ngenqanawa
Amaxabiso amafutha: Amafutha eenqwelomoya yenye yeendleko eziphambili zokusebenza kweenqwelo-moya, kwaye ukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso epetroli kuya kuchaphazela ngqo iindleko zokuthumela ngenqanawa ngenqanawa. Xa amaxabiso amafutha enyuka, iinkampani zeenqwelomoya ziya konyusa amaxabiso othutho lomoya ukuhambisa uxinzelelo lweendleko.
Iintlawulo zesikhululo seenqwelomoya: Imigangatho yokutshaja yezikhululo zeenqwelomoya ezahlukeneyo iyahluka, kubandakanywa iimali zokumisa kunye nokuthatha uhambo, iimali zokupaka, iimali zenkonzo yomhlaba, njl.
Imiba yendlela
Ukuxakeka kwindlela: Iindlela ezidumileyo ezifana neAsia Pacific ukuya eYurophu naseMelika, iYurophu kunye neMelika ukuya kuMbindi Mpuma, njl.njl., ngenxa yorhwebo rhoqo kunye nemfuno enkulu yempahla, iinqwelomoya zityale umthamo othe kratya kwezi ndlela, kodwa ukhuphiswano nalo luqatha. Amaxabiso aya kuchatshazelwa kokubini ukubonelela kunye nemfuno kunye neqondo lokhuphiswano. Amaxabiso aya kunyuka ngexesha lexesha eliphakamileyo, kwaye asenokuwa kwi-off-season ngenxa yokhuphiswano.
Umgaqo-nkqubo weGeopolitical: amaxabiso, izithintelo zeendlela kunye nokungavisisani kwezorhwebo
Imingcipheko ye-geopolitics ichaphazela ngokungangqalanga amaxabiso othutho lomoya:
Umgaqo-nkqubo weRhafu: Phambi kokuba i-United States ibeke imirhumo e-China, iinkampani zaleqa ukuthumela iimpahla ngenqanawa, nto leyo ebangela ukuba amaxabiso othutho kwindlela yase-China-e-US anyuke nge-18% kwiveki enye;
Izithintelo ze-Airspace: Emva kwengxabano yaseRashiya-i-Ukrainian, iinqwelo-moya zaseYurophu zajikeleza i-airspace yaseRashiya, kwaye ixesha lokuhamba kwindlela yase-Asia-Yurophu yanda ngeeyure ze-2-3, kwaye iindleko zepetroli zonyuka nge-8% -12%.
Umzekelo
Ukuze siqonde iindleko zokuthumela ngenqanawa ngakumbi, siya kusebenzisa imeko ethile ukubonisa. Masithi inkampani ifuna ukuthumela ibhetshi ye-500 kg yeemveliso ze-elektroniki ukusuka eShenzhen, eChina ukuyaELos Angeles, eU.SA, kwaye ikhethe inqwelomoya eyaziwayo yamazwe ngamazwe enexabiso leyunithi ye-US$6.3 ngekhilogram. Ekubeni iimveliso ze-elektroniki azikho iimpahla ezikhethekileyo, akukho ntlawulo yokuphatha eyongezelelweyo ifunekayo. Ngelo xesha, inkampani ikhetha ixesha eliqhelekileyo lokuthumela. Kule meko, iindleko zothutho lomoya zale bhetshi yeempahla malunga ne-US $3,150. Kodwa ukuba inkampani idinga ukuhambisa iimpahla kwiiyure ezingama-24 kwaye ikhethe inkonzo ekhawulezileyo, iindleko zinokunyuka nge-50% okanye nangaphezulu.
Uhlalutyo lwamaxabiso othutho lomoya ngo-2025
Ngo-2025, amaxabiso othutho lomoya ehlabathi angatshintsha kwaye anyuke, kodwa ukusebenza kuya kwahluka ngamaxesha kunye neendlela ezahlukeneyo.
EyoMqungu:Ngenxa yemfuno yokugcina impahla ngaphambi koNyaka oMtsha waseTshayina kunye nokungeniswa kwemigaqo-nkqubo emitsha yerhafu yi-United States, iinkampani zathumela iimpahla kwangaphambili, imfuno yanda kakhulu, kwaye amaxabiso omthwalo kwiindlela ezinkulu ezifana ne-Asia-Pacific ukuya eYurophu kunye ne-United States waqhubeka nokunyuka.
EyoMdumba:Emva koNyaka oMtsha waseTshayina, i-backlog yangaphambili yempahla yathunyelwa, imfuno yehla, kwaye umthamo wempahla kumaqonga orhwebo e-e-commerce unokuhlengahlengiswa emva kweholide, kwaye umyinge wempahla wehlabathi unokuwa xa uthelekisa noJanuwari.
EyoKwindla:Ukukhanya okusemva kokungxamiseka kwangaphambili kwerhafu kwikota yokuqala kusekho, kwaye ezinye iimpahla zisahamba. Kwangaxeshanye, ukubuyiswa ngokuthe ngcembe kwemveliso yemveliso kunokuqhuba isixa esithile semfuno yomthwalo, kwaye amaxabiso omthwalo anokunyuka kancinci ngesiseko sikaFebruwari.
Epreli ukuya kuJuni:Ukuba akukho ngxamiseko inkulu, umthamo kunye nemfuno zizinzile, kwaye umndilili wehlabathi jikelele wothutho lomoya kulindeleke ukuba uguquguquke malunga ne-±5%.
NgoJulayi ukuya kuAgasti:Ixesha labakhenkethi basehlotyeni, inxalenye yomthamo wesisu somthwalo weenqwelo-moya zabakhweli uhlala kwimithwalo yabahambi, njl., kwaye umthamo wempahla unzima kakhulu. Ngelo xesha, iiplatifomu ze-e-commerce zilungiselela imisebenzi yokukhangisa kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka, kwaye amazinga okuthutha umoya anganyuka nge-10% -15%.
NgoSeptemba ukuya kuOktobha:Ixesha lokunyuka kwempahla yemveli liyeza, lidibene ne-e-commerce "i-Golden September kunye neSiliva ye-Okthobha" imisebenzi yentengiso, imfuno yokuthuthwa kwempahla yomelele, kwaye amaxabiso omthwalo angaqhubeka nokunyuka nge-10% -15%.
NgoNovemba ukuya kuDisemba:Imithendeleko yokuthenga efana ne "Black Friday" kunye "neKrisimesi" ikhokelele ekukhuleni okukhulu kweempahla ze-e-commerce, kwaye imfuno ifikelele kwincopho yonyaka. Umyinge wezinga lomthwalo wehlabathi unokunyuka nge-15% -20% xa kuthelekiswa noSeptemba. Nangona kunjalo, ekupheleni konyaka, njengoko umthendeleko wokuthenga uphela kwaye i-off-season ifika, amaxabiso anokuhla.
(Ezi zingentla zezereferensi kuphela, nceda ubhekisele kweyona kowuteshini.)
Ngoko ke, ukumiselwa kweendleko zokuthuthwa kwempahla yomoya ayisiyonto ilula, kodwa isiphumo sesiphumo esidityanisiweyo sezinto ezininzi. Xa ukhetha iinkonzo zothutho lothutho ngomoya, abanini bempahla nceda baqwalasele ngokupheleleyo iimfuno zakho, uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali kunye neempawu zempahla, kwaye unxibelelane ngokupheleleyo kwaye uthethathethwane neenkampani ezithumela imithwalo ukuze ufumane esona sisombululo siphuculweyo somthwalo kunye neekowuti zeendleko ezifanelekileyo.
Indlela yokufumana isicatshulwa esikhawulezayo nesichanekileyo sothutho lomoya?
1. Ithini imveliso yakho?
2. Ubunzima beempahla kunye nomthamo? Okanye usithumelele uluhlu lokupakisha oluvela kumboneleli wakho?
3. Iphi indawo yomthengisi wakho? Siyayidinga ukuze iqinisekise isikhululo seenqwelomoya esikufutshane eTshayina.
4. Idilesi yokuhanjiswa komnyango wakho kunye nekhowudi yeposi. (Ukubakwindlu ngendluinkonzo iyafuneka.)
5. Ukuba unempahla echanekileyo esele ilungile ukusuka kumthengisi wakho, kuya kuba ngcono?
6. Isaziso esikhethekileyo: nokuba lide okanye lityebe kakhulu; nokuba ziimpahla ezibuthathaka ezifana nolwelo, iibhetri, njalo njalo; nokuba kukho naziphi na iimfuno zolawulo lobushushu.
I-Senghor Logistics iya kubonelela ngekowuteshini yothutho lomoya yamva nje ngokolwazi lwakho lomthwalo kunye neemfuno. Siyi-arhente yokuqala yeenqwelo-moya kwaye sinokubonelela ngenkonzo yokuhanjiswa kwendlu ngendlu, engenaxhala kwaye isindisa abasebenzi.
Nceda ugcwalise ifom yombuzo ukuze ufumane iingcebiso.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jun-25-2024
