Source：Outward-span research center and foreign shipping organized from the shipping industry, etc.
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), U.S. imports will continue to decline through at least the first quarter of 2023. Imports at major U.S. container ports have been declining month-on-month after peaking in May 2022.
The continued decline in imports will bring a "winter lull" at major container ports as retailers weigh stocks built up earlier against slowing consumer demand and expectations for 2023.
Ben Hacker, founder of Hackett Associates, who writes the monthly Global Port Tracker report for NRF, predicts: “Import containerized freight volumes at the ports we cover, including the 12 largest U.S. ports, are already down and will drop further over the next six months to levels not seen in a long time.”
He noted that despite positive economic indicators, a downturn was expected. U.S. inflation is high, the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, while retail sales, employment and GDP have all increased.
NRF expects container imports to fall by 15% in the first quarter of 2023. Meanwhile, the monthly forecast for January 2023 is 8.8% lower than in 2022, to 1.97 million TEU. This decline is expected to accelerate to 20.9% in February, at 1.67 million TEU. This is the lowest level since June 2020.
While spring imports typically increase, retail imports are expected to continue to decline. NRF sees an 18.6% drop in imports in March next year, which will moderate in April, where a drop of 13.8% is expected.
"Retailers are in the midst of an annual holiday frenzy, but ports are entering the off-season of winter after going through one of the busiest and most challenging years we've seen," said Jonathan Gold, NRF's vice president for supply chain and customs policy.
"Now is the time to finalize labor contracts at West Coast ports and address supply chain issues so the current 'calm' doesn't become the calm before the storm."
NRF forecasts that U.S. imports in 2022 will be roughly the same as in 2021. While the projected figure is only about 30,000 TEU down on last year, it is a sharp drop from the record increase in 2021.
NRF expects November, a typically busy period for retailers to snap up inventory at the last minute, to post a monthly decline for the third month in a row, falling 12.3% from November last year to 1.85 million TEU.
This would be the lowest level of imports since February 2021, NRF noted. December is expected to reverse the sequential decline, but is still down 7.2% from a year earlier at 1.94 million TEU.
Analysts pointed to an increase in consumer spending on services in addition to concerns about the economy.
Over the past two years, consumer spending has been largely on consumer goods. After experiencing supply chain delays in 2021, retailers are building up inventory early in 2022 because they fear port or rail strikes could cause delays similar to 2021.
Post time: Jan-30-2023
